Rut In Virginia

Why Virginia’s 2023 November election is ‘one of the most critical’ in recent years

All 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly are on the ballot in November, an election that could make or break GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s future in politics.

NORFOLK, Va. — All eyes are on Virginia for the November 2023 elections that could end a political stalemate in the state and determine if Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin can move forward with an unchecked conservative agenda in the second half of his term.

For the first time since 2019, all 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly will be on the ballot. One hundred of them are in the Republican-controlled House of Delegates, and 40 are in the Democratic-controlled Senate. 

November 7 is also the first election under new General Assembly district boundaries based on the 2020 U.S. Census.

What’s at stake is party control of the state, which will have a ripple effect on major issues, like abortion and gun control, as well as on Youngkin’s political career and potentially future presidential elections.

“In terms of the future of this state, it’s one of the most critical elections that I have seen in recent memory,” said Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, the Research Lab Director for The Wason Center at Christopher Newport University.

The Wason Center, known for survey research and nonpartisan analysis around politics in the Commonwealth, was one source 13News Now tapped into for insight into the upcoming elections. The other expert 13News Now interviewed was J. Miles Coleman, the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a prominent election forecaster based at the UVA Center of Politics.

Here are three things they said will make the November General Election so important for Virginians.

Party control of Virginia could hinge on handful of House, Senate races

Many of the competitive races that could determine which party controls the Virginia General Assembly are in Hampton Roads. That’s because the region has a significant chunk of the state’s population, and it has a history of flipping between parties from election to election. 

For example, Virginia Beach, the region’s largest city, voted 51.6% for Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, and a year later, Republican Youngkin won the city by 51%, according to the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP).

Coleman said one of the most hotly contested seats he’s keeping an eye on is the Senate race in the 17th District between Republican Emily Brewer and Democrat Clint Jenkins. The district spans western Hampton Roads and Virginia’s Southside, including Suffolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Franklin, and Emporia.

According to VPAP, 41.1% of the district’s population is Black, which Coleman said would make turnout — or the lack of it — noticeable.

“What the Democrats struggled with in 2021 — I think some of their other successes in 2022 may have papered over this fact — was that minority turnout was not that great, especially in parts of Virginia and the rest of the south,” Coleman said.

He also pointed out the 24th Senate District race between State Sen. Monty Mason, a Democrat, and former York-Poquoson Sheriff Danny Diggs, a Republican. The district covers Newport News, Williamsburg, and Poquoson, as well as York and James City counties.

“We’ve been told that district could be decided by double digits, and we’re not talking about percentage margins, we’re talking about actual votes,” Coleman said.

Bromley-Trujillo echoed Coleman’s take, saying both candidates in the 24th District are running as moderates because it’s not clearly a Republican or Democratic district.

“Incumbent Mason is saying, ‘While I was in the General Assembly, I did support some tax cuts,’ just traditionally a Republican position,” Bromley-Trujillo explained. “Diggs is focusing on his background in public safety and his kind of moderate stance on public safety as well.”

Bromley-Trujillo is also looking to the House race in the 97th District, which consists of a section of Virginia Beach, as a seat that could swing in either party’s direction. Republican Del. Karen Greenhalgh is facing off against Democratic challenger Michael Feggans.

Other races that could be close in Hampton Roads: House seats in the 84th and 89th districts, and the Senate seat in the 31st district.

A Republican ‘trifecta’ could mean major policy change in Virginia

Since Youngkin took office in January 2022, Virginia’s Senate and House of Delegates have struggled to meet in the middle on high-priority issues, such as the state budget.

The split legislature has stymied what the governor has been able to do in office, especially in contrast to other Republican governors who have passed sweeping conservative legislation in their states, Coleman said.

This situation could continue if the legislature remains split after the November 7 elections, or even if Democrats take full control. But for the first time in at least 10 years, a Republican trifecta — party control of the governorship and both chambers of the legislature — is possible.

Coleman and Bromley-Trujillo say that with just two years left in his term as governor, Youngkin needs Republican control of both chambers of the General Assembly to take the state in a more conservative direction. If he does, Virginians will likely see major changes to state law around hot-button issues, like abortion, climate change, and gun control.

“If the Republicans are in full control, then in terms of our legislative and political agenda in Virginia, we may start looking more like a Florida or a Texas,” Coleman said.

November 2023 is make or break for Youngkin’s future in politics

Because the Virginia General Assembly hasn’t been able to pass conservative legislation, Youngkin is counting on a Republican majority in his last two years if he wants a future in politics on the national stage. Legislative accomplishments would give him something to pitch if he runs for higher office down the road.

“He is going to want to say, ‘These are the conservative policies I did in Virginia and this is why I need to be the Republican nominee for president or anything else,’” Coleman explained. “But he’s really not going to be able to do that unless he has both chambers of the legislature.”

The election outcome could also determine if Youngkin enters the Republican primary for the 2024 presidential election, a move speculated in the public sphere since his 2021 victory in Virginia’s governor race. While Youngkin has insisted he is focused on November’s elections, he hasn’t entirely ruled out a presidential candidacy.

“There’s the ambition angle, which is that [Youngkin] very likely wants to pursue politics in other ways, potentially running for president in the Republican primary as a very late arrival to that,” Bromley-Trujillo said. “And he has said that he won’t make a decision until after the [November] election in Virginia.”

Bromley-Trujillo explained that a Republican legislature victory in November would enable him to tout that he helped turn a blue state red, a point she said would be “an avenue into ambitious politics,” such as a presidential run. Republican presidential candidates have not won Virginia since 2004, but Youngkin won the 2021 gubernatorial election in a state where Biden won by 10 points in the previous presidential election.

A potential Youngkin presidential campaign has recently gained traction amongst Republican megadonors eager for a strong alternative to former President Donald Trump, who is currently dominating a crowded field in poll numbers.

According to a Washington Post op-ed from CBS News political reporter Robert Costa, a group of national Republican donors will meet for a two-day meeting with Youngkin in Virginia Beach starting Oct. 17, where they will likely try to convince him to run.

If Youngkin were to make a late entry to the Republican primary after the November election, he would miss campaign filing deadlines in key states such as Nevada and South Carolina, Axios reports.